Is COVID-19 seasonal and might its unfold be predicted?

is COVID-19 seasonal

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Researchers examine the potential unfold of COVID-19 in relation to temperature, humidity, and latitude evaluation. 

COVID-19 has induced a global pandemic leading to over 400,000 deaths worldwide at current. Human coronaviruses typically show seasonal patterns of their incidence, and several other earlier research level to the function of ambient temperature and humidity within the spread of respiratory viruses. In the hope to help preventative and surveillance methods, researchers from the University Of Maryland School Of Medicine in Baltimore designed a cohort research to look at the affiliation of local weather, with the unfold of COVID-19. 

Published in JAMA Network Open, the research examined knowledge from fifty cities with and with out neighborhood unfold of COVID-19. Eight cities thought of to have substantial neighborhood unfold (Wuhan, Tokyo, Daegu, Qom, Milan, Paris, Seattle, and Madrid) have been in contrast with 42 cities that had not seen substantial neighborhood unfold. Data have been collected between January and March 10, 2020, defining neighborhood transmission as at the very least ten reported deaths in a rustic. 

Results from the research present that substantial neighborhood unfold occurred inside a slim band of latitude. The eight cities listed above are all positioned between 30˚N – 50˚N and have comparable climate patterns. During this era, they’d imply temperatures of 5-11˚C and low humidity. During the identical interval, COVID-19 did not have the identical stage of neighborhood unfold instantly north or south of this band of latitude. For instance, the reported variety of circumstances and deaths are a lot decrease in each Moscow (56˚N) and Hanoi (21.2˚N). The distribution of serious neighborhood unfold was in line with the behaviour of a seasonal respiratory virus. 

Temperature and humidity are recognized to affect coronavirus survival. The affected cities had comparable circumstances confirmed conducive to coronavirus survival in a laboratory. In comparability, colder areas in additional northern latitudes have been impacted a lot much less by COVID-19. Coronaviruses are additionally seen to have sturdy winter seasonality and grow to be much less prevalent in hotter summer season months. With this in thoughts, this research factors to the suggestion that COVID-19 will diminish significantly (within the affected areas above 30˚N) in the summertime. 

This research appeared purely at temperature, humidity, and latitude in relation to the unfold of COVID-19. Therefore different components akin to journey, inhabitants density, air pollution, and public well being interventions weren’t thought of. However, creating a greater understanding of the affiliation of local weather, with the unfold of COVID-19, may decide which areas want greater surveillance. This kind of climate modelling could possibly be used to estimate which areas are at greater threat of COVID-19 over the approaching months.

Written by Helen Massy, BSc.

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Sajadi, M., Habibzadeh, P., Vintzileos, A., Shokouhi, S., Miralles-Wilhelm, F. and Amoroso, A., 2020. Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). JAMA Network Open, 3(6), p.e2011834.

EurekAlert!. 2020. Temperature, Humidity, Latitude Analysis To Estimate Potential Spread, Seasonality Of COVID-19. [online] Available at: <> [Accessed 16 June 2020].

Image by NickyPe from Pixabay 

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